Down The Drive - Championship Week: The Bearcats Host Houston With A Title On The LineA Cincinnati Bearcats blog for the moderately intelligenthttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48741/downthedrive-fave.png2014-12-06T22:42:33-05:00http://www.downthedrive.com/rss/stream/70881662014-12-06T22:42:33-05:002014-12-06T22:42:33-05:00Tommy Tuberville's Interesting CeCe Strategy
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<figcaption>Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Many people thought it was a joke that CeCe Jefferson was thinking about visiting the Bearcats. But the big five star defensive end is in Cincinnati and seems to be having a good time.</p> <p>The key tactic for Tommy Tuberville in his quest to land CeCe Jefferson? Letting him wander around with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/american">American</a> Athletic Conference championship trophy. To wit, here is Jefferson is Tommy Tuberville's office holding the AAC trophy while wearing four of the Bearcats conference and bowl championship rings. Rings which Tubs clearly borrowed because he was not here for any of them.</p>
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<p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Icey?src=hash">#Icey</a> <a href="http://t.co/0bFRoC5D9h">pic.twitter.com/0bFRoC5D9h</a></p>
— CeCe Jefferson (@cecejeferson7) <a href="https://twitter.com/cecejeferson7/status/541372235332997121">December 6, 2014</a>
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<p>And here is Jefferson four hours later just hugging the trophy at what looks to my well trained eye like a hotel conference center lobby. Kingsgate perhaps?</p>
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<p>And it goes a lil something like this! 2014 AAC Champions! <a href="http://t.co/VNbX3S8Jbo">pic.twitter.com/VNbX3S8Jbo</a></p>
— CeCe Jefferson (@cecejeferson7) <a href="https://twitter.com/cecejeferson7/status/541423968000176128">December 7, 2014</a>
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<p>One would presume that CeCe Jefferson gets to take the trophy with him to dinner with the coaching staff, out to whatever party he goes to with his chaperone. One gets the feeling that if it wasn't an NCAA violation Tubs would let CeCe take the trophy home with him to Florida.</p>
<p>Its a bold strategy Cotton, lets see if it pays off.</p>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7346641/tommy-tuberville-is-letting-cece-jefferson-wander-around-with-the-aacMatt Opper2014-12-06T19:06:09-05:002014-12-06T19:06:09-05:00Bearcats Season Highlights<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/T1SdSX2PoCo" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe>
<div class="source source-img"><p><p>Say what you want about the AAC, but the video department is not half bad.</p></p></div>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7346207/bearcats-season-highlightsMatt Opper2014-12-06T15:44:47-05:002014-12-06T15:44:47-05:00Bearcats Beat Houston, Win Share Of AAC Crown
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<figcaption>Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>It was a trying day, but the Bearcats got it down and won their seventh straight game</p> <p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.downthedrive.com/">Cincinnati Bearcats</a> made it more difficult than it needed to be, of course they did. this is 2014 and that is what this team has been doing all season long. Before it gets fun, it has to get trying. That has been the pattern this season from the very start, and UC made sure that they would fulfil that pattern in the course of the most important sixty minutes of the season.</p>
<p>The Bearcats cruised in the first half behind a strong showing from <span>Gunner Kiel</span> who managed to pass <span>Tony Pike</span> for the second most touchdown passes in a UC season. But Gunner lasted just one drive into the second half before he was forced to retire due to stomach cramps.</p>
<p>It was <span>Munchie Legaux</span> who came off the bench and yet again led the Bearcats to another big win, a storybook ending to hat has been an extremely trying year for the Bearcats senior. It does seem fitting that Munchie would be the guy to lead the team to the win in the second half. On senior day, at home. You have to feel great for Munchie, and for this team who came all the way back after a disastrous stretch in late September and early October.</p>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7345491/bearcats-survive-against-houston-win-a-share-of-aac-crownMatt Opper2014-12-06T15:38:20-05:002014-12-06T15:38:20-05:00Bearcats Win A Share Of The AAC Crown<h3 class="link-title"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/GoBEARCATS/status/541327689039507456">Bearcats Win A Share Of The AAC&nbsp;Crown</a></h3>
<div class="description"><p><p>Tremendous turnaround to the season.</p></p></div>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7345523/bearcats-win-a-share-of-the-aac-crownMatt Opper2014-12-06T14:06:06-05:002014-12-06T14:06:06-05:00Gunner Kiel headed to the locker room<h3 class="link-title"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/apjoekay/status/541306298160381952">Gunner Kiel headed to the locker&nbsp;room</a></h3>
<div class="description"><p><p>Stop me if you have heard that before this year. Cramps is the reason according to Todd McShay</p></p></div>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7345205/gunner-kiel-headed-to-the-locker-roomMatt Opper2014-12-06T13:12:05-05:002014-12-06T13:12:05-05:00Gunner Kiel Ties Tony Pike With 29 Touchdown Passes<h3 class="link-title"><a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/jimkelly7/status/541292230984892416">Gunner Kiel Ties Tony Pike With 29 Touchdown&nbsp;Passes</a></h3>
<div class="description"><p><p>Good for second for a single season in UC history. Ben Mauk holds thee record with 31 passes in the 2007 season.</p></p></div>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7344973/gunner-kiel-ties-tony-pike-with-29-touchdown-passesMatt Opper2014-12-06T12:04:39-05:002014-12-06T12:04:39-05:00Bearcats and Cougars Gamethread
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<figcaption>John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Its time for title number five in seven years</p> <p><br>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.downthedrive.com/">Cincinnati Bearcats</a> are on the verge of completing one of the most remarkable in season transformations in the history of the program, and in the recent history of college football. I can't remember a team that looked as hopeless as this team did in late September and early October who then turned things around completely and looked dominant in November like this group has. There is certainly no precedent for this kind of in season turnaround in the annals of the Bearcats football.</p>
<p>But all of that will be for naught if the Bearcats don't get it done right now against the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/houston-cougars">Houston Cougars</a>, This is a tough Houston team to play, not game against the Cougars is easy. But as discussed previously I really do like the Bearcats matchups with the Cougars defense which is not as good as the stats suggest. The Bearcats are a difficult match up for this Cougars defense. The question is, can the Bearcats exploit their advantages.</p>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/6/7344693/championship-saturday-gamethreadMatt Opper2014-12-05T15:00:02-05:002014-12-05T15:00:02-05:00Advanced Stats Preview: Cincinnat vs Houston
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<figcaption>John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>I have been doing these deep statistical dives on the Bearcats and their opponents for the better part of the season. Not all of them have been published in this form. Early in the year this is simply what I did in the research phase of any game week. The Cougars are the only team I have seen this year where the traditional stats veer so wildly from what the advanced metrics say.</p> <table border="1" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><b>Cincinnati Offense</b></td>
<td><b>Houston Defense</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>S&P+</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">108.4 (35th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">97.1 (74th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Success Rate</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">45.2 (36th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">40.3 (56th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>ISO PPP</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">.92 (30th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">.73 (10th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Rushing S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">107.9 (49th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">82.6 (114th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Passing S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">125.3 (21st)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">90.9 (96th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Standard Downs S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">112.3 (35th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">86.2 (115th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Passing Downs S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">134.6 (16th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">90.9 (99th)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>At this point we know who the <a href="https://www.downthedrive.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Bearcats</a> are as an offense. They are a team that is at their best when they are rolling with a pass first, pass often offense. <span>Gunner Kiel</span> has clearly been slowed down tremendously by his rib injury. The emergence of <span>Mike Boone</span>, <span>Rod Moore</span> and the running game has meant that the Bearcats have not needed to be as pass heavy as they were in the early going of this year. The Bearcats have been winning with the running game for most of this six game stretch, but they will need to get back to the passing game against the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/houston-cougars" class="sbn-auto-link">Cougars</a>.</p>
<p>Now that obviously comes with risks against a Houston team that is renowned for their ball hawking. But it is my opinion that the Houston defense comes with a reputation for competency and excellence that I just don't see. Their traditional stats place them near the top of the country in both phases of the game. But those numbers are not opponent adjusted like the S&P numbers are. So their is no accounting for who the Cougars have played 6 of their 11 games against offenses that rank among the 20 worst in the country according to S&P+; Tulane, Tulsa, South Florida, SMU, UTSA and UNLV. Playing that many bad offenses can do a lot to inflate the stats of a defense, as it has for Houston. That's why I take the S&P+ numbers a little bit more faithfully than I do the raw adjusted stats. Taking into account the fact that the Cougars have played an abnormal amount of abnormally bad offenses the Cougars are below average.</p>
<p>They do some things extremely well, like disrupt the passing game in general. Then there are the turnovers which have made a traditionally volatile aspect of the game into a bankable commodity. I really like <span>Efrem Oliphant</span> and the way that he plays the game. He truly is the perfect muse for David Gibbs chaotic scheme because he can blitz with effectiveness and he is one of the Cougars better pass defenders from his linebacker position. <span>William Jackson</span> is an extremely active defensive back. The Cougars have good players, but so much of their defensive identity is dependent on getting inordinate amounts of pressure on the opposing quarterback, which is something that they will struggle to do with any consistency.</p>
<p>The real reason that I like this match up for the Bearcats offense is a much simpler one. The Cougars have great pass defense stats; they are active in the throwing lanes and do a good job of keeping quarterbacks from completing at a high percentage. But that has come against average to terrible passing offenses, they simply haven't seen anyone who plays like the Bearcats or who posses the Bearcats array of receivers. They will challenge the Cougars secondary, and UC tends to win those match ups.</p>
<table border="1" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><b>Cincinnati Defense</b></td>
<td><b>Houston Offense</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>S&P+</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">95.0 (81st)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">94.3 (87th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Success Rate</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">43.6 (92nd)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">40.4 (84th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>ISO PPP</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">.82 (52nd)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">.82 (82nd)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Rushing S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">92.2 (93rd)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">101.3 (68th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Passing S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">97.2 (80th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">77.7 (119th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Standard Downs S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">98.3 (76th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">93.6 (88th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Passing Downs S&P</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">88.9 (103rd)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">80.2 (114th)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>For what seems like the 8th week in a row the Bearcats are going to be playing an offense that plays into the hands of the UC defense. There is simply no getting around the fact that the Cougars offense is a mess right now, and has been a mess for most of the season. For whatever reason the Cougars dangerous and explosive offense of a year ago has completely fallen apart this year. The biggest difference between this year and last, the Cougars get nothing, and I mean NOTHING from the passing game.</p>
<p><span>John O'Korn</span> was largely ineffective this season, coming into tomorrow's game with a QB rating for the year of 100.38. He was so bad that Troy Levine made the decision to turn to <span>Greg Ward Jr</span>., a 5'11" receiver who, like so many kids these days, got his start as a play making quarterback. The effect has been to make the Houston offense, in effect, an all time Wildcat.</p>
<p>The Houston running game has seen a dramatic uptick because of that change, but they are still not a team that can regularly bank on outbursts from their offense to carry the day. They need to play in tight controlled games where their lack of big play ability won't be an issue. Enter a Bearcats defense that is on an absolute tear right now and you have to like the Bearcats chances here.</p>
<table border="1" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><b>Cincinnati Offensive Line</b></td>
<td><b>Houston Defensive Line</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Rushing Yards Per Game</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">158.09 (71st)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">134.91 (31st)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Rushing Yards Per Carry</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">4.60 (49th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">3.54 (25th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>TFL Per Game</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">3.18 (1st)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">5.36 (93rd)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Sacks Per Game</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">1.09 (17th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">2.00 (69th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Sack Rate</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">2.8 %</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">6.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Pressure Rate</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">7.2 %</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">14.7 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td><b>Cincinnati Defensive Line</b></td>
<td><b>Houston Offensive Line</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Rushing Yards Per Game</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">176.73 (81st)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">176.73 (55th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Rushing Yards Per Carry</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">4.61 (87th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">4.63 (47th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>TFL Per Game</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">5.73 (72nd)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">6.91 (105th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Sacks Per Game</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">2.73 (27th)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">2.64 (104th)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Sack Rate</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">7.2 %</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">9.5 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><b>Pressure Rate</b></td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">12.0 %</td>
<td style="text-align: center; ">13.9 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
https://www.downthedrive.com/2014/12/5/7337835/advanced-statistical-preview-cincinnati-bearcats-host-the-houstonMatt Opper