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Simulating Cincinnati at Tulsa

There’s one game left this season. Let’s find out what happens early so we can eat more turkey.

NCAA Football: Tulsa at Cincinnati Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Between all the food you will consume this weekend, the deals you might be chasing on Black Friday and the family you are hopefully spending time with, you may not have as much time to focus on the Cincinnati Bearcats. Even without all those things, you may not want to spend time focusing on the 4-7 Bearcats who are destined for their first losing season since 2010.

In an effort to help you skip to the end, we’re churning up the simulating machine one last time to give an idea of what will take place when UC visits the Tulsa Golden Hurricane this Friday.

Before we get started, here is the disclaimer. The simulation site used (WhatIfSports.com) has not updated to include 2016 football rosters. However, with some slight tweaks, we can at least form a facsimile of the makeup of the Bearcats and the Golden Hurricane. We can also adjust the weather, which calls for clear skies with temperatures in the high 40s on Friday night in Tulsa according to AccuWeather.com. Here are the results of five simulations.

Cincinnati 41 Tulsa 23

The machines seem to have not figured out that UC can’t score. DJ Dowdy hauls in a nine-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter and Tion Green pounds one in from seven yards out on the next drive and the rout is on. Hayden Moore throws for 318 yards and three touchdowns on 23-of-40 passing along with just one interception. Devin Gray leads the team with eight receptions for 98 yards and a score and Nate Cole is a big-play machine, with all three of his receptions going for 20 or more yards. Green rushes for 97 yards and two touchdowns as well.

Tulsa 57 Cincinnati 13

Alas, this is much more likely what will come to pass. Dane Evans absolutely lights the field on fire, throwing for 354 yards and four touchdowns on 22-of-32 passing. Keevan Lucas is the biggest target, producing 137 yards and a score on eight receptions. The Golden Hurricane also rush for 184 yards and three more touchdowns, with D’Angelo Brewer accounting for 111 yards and three touchdowns combined on the ground and through the air. Moore is absolutely dreadful in comparison to people in the stands let alone Evans, as he is intercepted six times while UC has the ball for less than 24 minutes.

Tulsa 34 Cincinnati 23

Once again Tulsa runs away with the game, going up 34-3 early in the fourth quarter and holding on for the victory. Evans slices up the UC secondary, despite being sacked four times, and finishes with 353 yards and three touchdowns on 19-of-26 pass attempts. Lucas (six receptions, 127 yards, TD) and Joshua Atkinson (five receptions, 103 yards, two TDs) are a nightmare for the Bearcats defense, while Moore is again erratic (19-of-37) and careless with the ball (three interceptions).

Tulsa 36 Cincinnati 14

The Bearcats keep it close, with a 14-yard run from Green, his second of the game, pulling UC to within six points near the end of the third quarter. However, the Bearcats are unable to score again and Tulsa gets into the end zone twice and adds a field goal in the final 15 minutes to earn a convincing victory. Green ends with 81 yards, but is outclassed by Brewer (123 yards, two TDs). Evans is not great (18-of-27, 252 yards, TD, 2 INTs) but Hayden Moore doesn’t do much better, completing 17-of-28 pass attempts for only 182 yards and a pick.

Tulsa 24 Cincinnati 14

Hobbs brings in a 38-yard touchdown early in the third quarter to give Tulsa 24-0 lead. Despite two receiving touchdowns by Gray, the Bearcats’ comeback attempt once again comes up short. UC averages only 2.2 yards per carry on the ground, while Tulsa has 268 rushing yards, highlighted by Brewer (182) and Flanders (54 and two touchdowns). Moore completes 16-of-28 passes for 235 yards and two scores, but once again can’t seem to avoid throwing it to Tulsa’s defensive backs, registering three interceptions.

Well there you have it. If these simulations are any indication, UC is going to have a dismal end to a rather dismal season on Friday. With how well Tulsa has been playing (8-3 overall) and the fact that this game is on the road, its likely they are more accurate than you might think.